TSM 2025-12-18
Financial Report
Earnings Data Summary for TSM as of 2025-12-18
Most recent EPS (Actual): 2.92
Most recent EPS (Consensus): 2.66
Most recent EPS reported date: 2025-10-16
Most recent EPS fiscal date (quarterly): 2025-09-30
Historical Average EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.8
In the past 8 quarters, the company missed earnings estimates 0 times.
Historical High EPS (last 8 quarters): 2.47
Historical Low EPS (last 8 quarters): 1.29
Upcoming earnings date: 2026-01-14
Valuation Data Summary for TSM as of 2025-12-18
Current P/E for TSM: 27.95
1 year P/E range: 21.04 - 28.09
2 years P/E range: 19.5 - 30.42
5 years P/E range: 10.71 - 30.42
Management Sentiment Summary for TSM in 2025Q3 earnings call:
The following is the average sentiment score for each management title:
The lower the score, the more negative the sentiment. The higher the score, the more positive the sentiment. 0.5 is neutral.
| Title | Sentiment Score |
|---|---|
| Director of Investor Relations | 0.23 |
| CFO | 0.58 |
| Chairman and CEO | 0.57 |
Insider transactions in the last 90 days:
No Form 4 has been filed.
Technical Report
Price Distribution for TSM
25th percentile in the past 20 days: 283.9
Lowest price in the past 20 days: 266.1
Price with moderate low (closest to -0.5) z-score in the past 20 days: 282.43
Price with low (closest to -1.0) z-score in the past 20 days: 275.08
Price below mean by one standard deviation: 275.43
Price below mean by two standard deviations: 265.50
Price Range for TSM
TSM current price: $276.96
5-Day Range: $275.08 - $305.84
50-Day Range: $266.10 - $313.13
200-Day Range: $132.98 - $313.13
Technical Indicators Summary for TSM as of 2025-12-18
MACD values for TSM in the past 14 days:
| Date | histogram | macd | signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | -0.49 | 1.62 | 2.12 |
| 2025-12-15 | 0.24 | 2.48 | 2.24 |
| 2025-12-12 | 1.26 | 3.44 | 2.18 |
| 2025-12-11 | 2.32 | 4.19 | 1.86 |
| 2025-12-10 | 2.49 | 3.77 | 1.28 |
| 2025-12-09 | 1.99 | 2.65 | 0.66 |
| 2025-12-08 | 1.70 | 1.86 | 0.16 |
| 2025-12-05 | 1.25 | 0.99 | -0.26 |
| 2025-12-04 | 1.16 | 0.58 | -0.57 |
| 2025-12-03 | 1.10 | 0.24 | -0.86 |
EMA values for TSM with a window of 50 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | 287.65 |
| 2025-12-15 | 287.68 |
| 2025-12-12 | 287.68 |
| 2025-12-11 | 287.50 |
| 2025-12-10 | 286.79 |
| 2025-12-09 | 285.84 |
| 2025-12-08 | 285.12 |
| 2025-12-05 | 284.43 |
| 2025-12-04 | 284.01 |
| 2025-12-03 | 283.65 |
EMA values for TSM with a window of 200 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | 246.92 |
| 2025-12-15 | 246.51 |
| 2025-12-12 | 246.10 |
| 2025-12-11 | 245.64 |
| 2025-12-10 | 245.04 |
| 2025-12-09 | 244.39 |
| 2025-12-08 | 243.80 |
| 2025-12-05 | 243.21 |
| 2025-12-04 | 242.69 |
| 2025-12-03 | 242.19 |
RSI values for TSM in the past 14 days:
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | 45.52 |
| 2025-12-15 | 46.15 |
| 2025-12-12 | 49.28 |
| 2025-12-11 | 60.66 |
| 2025-12-10 | 66.55 |
| 2025-12-09 | 62.22 |
| 2025-12-08 | 61.15 |
| 2025-12-05 | 55.74 |
| 2025-12-04 | 54.26 |
| 2025-12-03 | 56.74 |
Money Flow Index (MFI) for TSM over the last 10 trading days:
Latest MFI: 39.13
| Date | MFI | Money Flow Ratio | Typical Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-17 | 39.13 | 0.64 | 280.38 |
| 2025-12-16 | 48.69 | 0.95 | 286.22 |
| 2025-12-15 | 57.32 | 1.34 | 290.36 |
| 2025-12-12 | 59.39 | 1.46 | 295.77 |
| 2025-12-11 | 72.15 | 2.59 | 303.44 |
| 2025-12-10 | 86.31 | 6.30 | 308.87 |
| 2025-12-09 | 86.31 | 6.31 | 302.20 |
| 2025-12-08 | 86.48 | 6.40 | 300.40 |
| 2025-12-05 | 68.78 | 2.20 | 296.26 |
| 2025-12-04 | 70.10 | 2.34 | 292.39 |
Bollinger lower and higher band for TSM, calculated for the past 20 days
Number of Standard Deviations: 2
Latest Close: 276.96
Latest SMA: 290.62
Latest Bollinger Lower Band: 271.73
Latest Bollinger Higher Band: 309.52
ADX for TSM, calculated for the past 14 days
ADX: 21.89
Volume and volume ratio for TSM:
Last 30 days average volume: 12.3M
Today's volume: 16.8M
Volume Ratio (Today / Avg Volume in the past 30 days): 1.37
Average VWAP in the past 30 days: 290.01
Support levels for TSM (last 200 trading days):
Last Low: 192.2 on 2025-06-02 (UTC)
Last High: 313.98 on 2025-12-10 (UTC)
Fibonacci Levels: 23.6%: 271.56, 38.2%: 245.32, 50.0%: 224.12, 61.8%: 202.91, 78.6%: 172.71
Resonance Supports: No resonance supports (Fibonacci levels not within ±3% of last low).
Short interest data for TSM in the past 5 months:
| Report Date | Avg Daily Volume | Days to Cover | Short Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | 12.8M | 2.64 | 33.7M |
| 2025-11-14 | 12.2M | 2.84 | 34.6M |
| 2025-10-31 | 14.3M | 2.34 | 33.6M |
| 2025-10-15 | 15.3M | 2.23 | 34.1M |
| 2025-09-30 | 12.5M | 2.58 | 32.3M |
| 2025-09-15 | 11.3M | 2.38 | 27M |
| 2025-08-29 | 10.7M | 2.32 | 24.9M |
| 2025-08-15 | 10.2M | 2.50 | 25.5M |
| 2025-07-31 | 12.9M | 2.18 | 28.1M |
| 2025-07-15 | 10.9M | 2.48 | 27M |
Option Chain
Monthly options:
TSM 275 put expires on 2026-01-16
No option chain data available. TSM 270 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.394, delta: -0.3584, gamma: 0.0119, theta: -0.1849, vega: 0.2984 ask price: 8.45, bid price: 7.9
TSM 265 put expires on 2026-01-16
No option chain data available. TSM 260 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.3994, delta: -0.2455, gamma: 0.0099, theta: -0.1598, vega: 0.2514 ask price: 5.0, bid price: 4.85
TSM 255 put expires on 2026-01-16
No option chain data available. TSM 250 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.4114, delta: -0.1575, gamma: 0.0073, theta: -0.1271, vega: 0.1924 ask price: 3.0, bid price: 2.73
TSM 245 put expires on 2026-01-16
No option chain data available. TSM 240 put expires on 2026-01-16
iv: 0.427, delta: -0.0958, gamma: 0.005, theta: -0.0938, vega: 0.1359 ask price: 1.75, bid price: 1.48
Weekly options:
TSM 275 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3433, delta: -0.4044, gamma: 0.0193, theta: -0.2302, vega: 0.226 ask price: 6.4, bid price: 5.7
TSM 270 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3476, delta: -0.3114, gamma: 0.0174, theta: -0.2146, vega: 0.2062 ask price: 4.45, bid price: 4.0
TSM 265 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3488, delta: -0.2277, gamma: 0.0148, theta: -0.1852, vega: 0.1762 ask price: 2.92, bid price: 2.65
TSM 260 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3467, delta: -0.1556, gamma: 0.0118, theta: -0.1464, vega: 0.1394 ask price: 1.95, bid price: 1.45
TSM 255 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3686, delta: -0.1134, gamma: 0.0089, theta: -0.1257, vega: 0.1121 ask price: 1.55, bid price: 0.9
TSM 250 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3768, delta: -0.0756, gamma: 0.0065, theta: -0.0956, vega: 0.0831 ask price: 0.95, bid price: 0.59
TSM 245 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.3949, delta: -0.0529, gamma: 0.0047, theta: -0.076, vega: 0.0629 ask price: 0.74, bid price: 0.32
TSM 240 put expires on 2026-01-02
iv: 0.4007, delta: -0.0328, gamma: 0.0031, theta: -0.0526, vega: 0.0427 ask price: 0.47, bid price: 0.15
Final Report
Recommendation: Buy
Reasoning:
-
Financial: TSM’s most recent EPS of $2.92 beat consensus ($2.66) and is well above the 8‑quarter average ($1.80). The company has not missed earnings estimates in the past two years, demonstrating consistent execution. The current P/E of 27.95 is near the top of its 1‑year range (21.04–28.09), indicating the stock is not cheap, but justified by strong earnings growth. Management sentiment in the Q3 call was neutral‑to‑positive (CFO 0.58, CEO 0.57), though the Investor Relations director was notably cautious (0.23). No insider selling in the last 90 days is a positive signal. Upcoming earnings on 2026‑01‑14 is a near‑term catalyst.
-
Technical: The stock is in a corrective phase after reaching an all‑time high of $313.98 on 2025‑12‑10. Current price ($276.96) is below the 50‑day EMA (~$287.65) but well above the 200‑day EMA (~$246.92), indicating the long‑term uptrend remains intact. Key support levels are:
- Bollinger lower band: $271.73
- 20‑day low: $266.10
- Fibonacci 23.6% retracement: $271.56
RSI (45.52) and MFI (39.13) are in neutral‑to‑oversold territory, suggesting selling pressure may be easing. MACD histogram turned negative recently, signaling short‑term momentum weakness. Volume today is 37% above the 30‑day average, indicating heightened interest at these levels. Short interest is stable (~2.6 days to cover), not a major concern.
-
News: Sentiment is overwhelmingly positive (9 out of 10 recent articles bullish). Themes include TSM’s dominance in AI chip manufacturing, expansion of U.S. capacity, and expectations for sustained demand growth. No negative company‑specific news offsets the optimistic outlook.
-
Option Chain: Weekly puts expiring 2026‑01‑02 show elevated implied volatility (~35–40%) for strikes near the current price (e.g., 275 put IV 34.33%, 270 put IV 34.76%), reflecting heightened near‑term uncertainty. The 270 put has a delta of –0.31, gamma 0.017, indicating moderate sensitivity to price moves. Option pricing suggests the market is pricing in potential downside but also hedging ahead of earnings.
-
Macro Context: The U.S. economy shows late‑cycle characteristics with elevated valuations (Buffett Indicator 226.3%) and sticky inflation. However, the yield curve is no longer inverted (10Y‑2Y spread +0.7%), reducing recession fears. For a global semiconductor leader like TSM, the broader tech/AI demand cycle remains a stronger driver than near‑term macro fluctuations.
Strategy to Minimize Risk:
- Entry Price: Ideal buy zone: $271–$277 (near Bollinger lower band / Fibonacci 23.6% support). A break below $266 (20‑day low) would invalidate the setup.
- Profit Targets:
- Short‑term (pre‑earnings): $295–$300 (6–8% gain)
- Long‑term (6–12 months): $310+ (resistance near all‑time high)
- Stop‑Loss: $265 (just below the 20‑day low and two standard deviations below the 20‑day mean).
- Time Horizon: 2–4 weeks for a tactical bounce into earnings; longer‑term holders can keep a core position beyond January earnings.
Final Notes:
- The stock has pulled back ~12% from its recent high, offering a better risk/reward entry.
- Upcoming earnings on 2026‑01‑14 could be a volatility catalyst; consider reducing exposure into the event if short‑term targets are hit.
- Monitor the 50‑day EMA (~$288) as resistance; a reclaim above that level would confirm momentum recovery.
- Given the high P/E, any broad market sell‑off could pressure TSM further—maintain strict stop‑loss discipline.