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VIX 2025-07-10

Created on

Symbol

VIX

User Message

UVXY down 8.44% in the last 5 days.

Technical Report

----VIX Summary as of 2025-07-10----

Current VIX: 15.94, VIX percentile in the past 200 days: 22.0%

Z-score (5 days): -1.13

Z-score (20 days): -1.14

VIX9D: 12.53

VIX9D VIX: False

---UVXY Performance Summary----

Current UVXY: 17.14, UVXY percentile in the past 90 days: 0.0%

5D % Change: -8.1

5D Volatility (%): 2.2

RSI (14): 10.07

Above 5-day MA: False

Volume Spike Ratio: 1.13

Final Report

Analysis and Recommendation for UVXY Purchase

Current Market Conditions (2025-07-10)

  • VIX: 15.94 (22nd percentile over past 200 days)

  • UVXY: $17.14 (0th percentile over past 90 days, extremely oversold)

  • RSI (14): 10.07 (severely oversold)

  • 5D % Change: -8.1% (sharp recent decline)

  • Z-scores: Negative (-1.13 for 5D, -1.14 for 20D), indicating VIX is significantly below its recent mean.

  • VIX9D VIX: Suggests near-term volatility expectations are subdued.

Historical Performance Insights

  1. VIX Percentile (20-29.9%):

  • 84.6% of entries were profitable.

  • Avg. max profit: +27.8%

  • Avg. days to profit: 3.9 days

  1. VIX Value (14.01-16):

  • 72.7% of entries were profitable.

  • Avg. max profit: +18.3%

  • Avg. days to profit: 3.1 days

Key Observations

  • The VIX is in a low-percentile range (22%) with oversold UVXY conditions (RSI ~10).

  • Historically, this setup has led to high-probability mean-reversion trades with strong upside potential.

  • The 5D and 20D Z-scores suggest the VIX is due for a bounce.

Trading Plan

1. Entry Allocation

  • Allocate 5-7% of total capital to UVXY at current price (~$17.14).

Rationale: Conservative sizing balances upside potential with risk management (stop-loss at 5%).

2. Profit Targets

  • Primary Target: +15% (~$19.70)

  • Based on historical avg. max profit in the 14.01-16 VIX range (~18.3%).

  • Secondary Target: +25% (~$21.43) if volatility spikes sharply.

3. Stop-Loss

  • 5% below entry (~$16.28) to limit downside.

4. Time Horizon

  • Expect holding period of 3-5 days (aligned with historical avg. days to profit).

5. Additional Considerations

  • Monitor for VIX9D VIX or upward momentum in VIX futures as confirmation.

  • Avoid adding to the position if UVXY breaks below $16.28 (stop-loss level).

Final Recommendation

Buy UVXY at $17.14 with 5-7% capital allocation. Target $19.70 (+15%) for partial profit-taking, with a stop-loss at $16.28 (-5%). This trade leverages statistically favorable mean-reversion conditions in the VIX and extreme oversold UVXY levels.

Note: UVXY is a short-term instrument—avoid holding beyond 5 days without reassessment.